Week 4 Picks

I'm now 6-9 overall.  Let's see if I can get things turned around this week. 
Bears(+3) over Lions
Steelers(-2.5) over Vikings
Ravens (-3) over Bills
Redskins(-3) over Raiders
Colts(-7.5) over Jaguars

A 5-0 week would be nice...

Post week 3

So my week 3 was a replay of weeks 1 and 2. 
2-3.
At least I am consistent.  However, the NY Giants have been consistent too.  Consistently awful.  So I am trying something different.  I haven't seen any lines for week 4.  I am going to post what I think the line should be.  When the lines come out, I will see if there is value.
Before I get to that, let's just put a cap on week 3.
Week 3 picks:
Chiefs (+3.5) over Philadelphia...Win Actual Result (Chiefs 26-16)
Vikings(-5.5) over Cleveland... Loss Actual Result (Cleveland 31-27)
Baltimore (+2.5) over Houston...Win Actual Result(Baltimore 30-9)
Giants (+1) over Carolina...Loss Actual Result (Carolina38-0)
Green Bay (-2.5) over Cincinnati... Loss Actual Result(Cincinnati 34-30)

Thursday
San Francisco @ St. Louis (+3)
Sunday
Baltimore @ Buffalo (+8.5)
Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+3.5)
Arizona @ Tampa Bay (+2)
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+11)
Seattle @ Houston (+4.5)
Chicago @ Detroit (+2.5)
NY Giants @ Kansas City (-7.5)
Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (-3)
NY Jets @ Tennessee (-4)
Washington @ Oakland (+1)
Dallas @ San Diego (-2)
Philadelphia @ Denver (-13)
New England @ Atlanta (P)
Mon
Miami @ New Orleans (-3.5)

Week 3

Week 2 results:
New England (-11.5) over N.Y. Jets... Loss Actual result (New England 13-10)
San Diego (+7.5) over Philadelphia...Win Actual result (S.D. 33-30)
Ravens (-6.5) over Cleveland...Win Actual Result ( Baltimore 14-6)
Bears(-6) over the Vikings...Loss Actual Result (Chicago 31-30)
Jaguars (+5.5) over Raiders...Loss Actual Result (Oakland 19-9)

Overall record now: 4-6

Week 3 picks:
Chiefs (+3.5) over Philadelphia
Vikings(-5.5) over Cleveland
Baltimore (+2.5) over Houston
Giants (+1) over Carolina
Green Bay (-2.5) over Cincinnati

Week 2

So, week one didn't go so great.  Nevermind that.  I looked at the supercontest website, there were only 3 people who went 5-0.  Only 8 people went 4-0-1.  33 people went 4-1.  Then there was the rest of us.  Point is, one week of 5-0 this early and I could be right back in this thing.  Hypothetically. 

For a little bit of looking over the shoulder at last week's performance, lets go over the games.
Bucs (-3.5) over the Jets... Loss (Actual result: Jets 18 Bucs 17)
As the game unfolded it became apparent that I was not going to cover in this game no matter what.  The fact that the Jets won straight up says more about the terrible decision of the T.B. player (David)  I'm too lazy to look it up, you're not paying for this blog and nobody is reading it anyway, so there. I still don't believe in Geno Smith as will be reflected in this week's picks.

Seahawks (-3.5) over Carolina...Win (Actual result: Seattle 12 Carolina 7)
The Seahawks didn't look like they were going to cover all day.  A score toward the end of the game made the difference.  Seahawks were good enough to overcome the "west coast team coming east to play in the 1 o'clock game" thing and cover.  I was with the "squares" on this one and squarely won.

Chiefs (-4) over Jaguars...Win (Actual result: Kansas City 28 Jacksonville 2)
I wish every win could be this easy.  Gabbert is no longer the QB.

Falcons (+3) over Saints...Loss (Actual result: Saints 23 Falcons 17)
I think this tells us more about the Falcons than the Saints.  This was in the Superdome, I should have steered clear of this matchup.

Redskins (-3.5) over Philadelphia...Loss (Actual result Philadelphia 33 Washington 27)
Chip Kelly.

Note the edit took place at 7:49 Thursday night. 

New England (-11.5) over N.Y. Jets
I'm going with the squares on this one.  All the wise guys say it's way too many points, Tom Brady doesn't have enough options, AND Amendola is out for tonight.  That's right.  The MVP for the Patriots tonight?  Geno Smith.  At least 2 INTs and Brady makes a superstar out of one or more no names.
San Diego (+7.5) over Philadelphia
This one scares me.  Here's my take- Philadelphia dominated Washington the entire first half and Washington still kept it close.  Washington gave the game to Philadelphia over and over again.  I think San Diego stays out of their own way- comes east "west coast team coming east to play in the early game" and gets the win.  I think the Philadelphia offense won't be firing on all cylinders.

Ravens (-6.5) over Cleveland
Brandon Weeden.  Ravens at home.  Less than a TD spread.

Bears(-6) over the Vikings
Christian Ponder. Bears at home.  Less than a TD spread. 

Jaguars (+5.5) over Raiders
I just don't think Jacksonville is that bad.  I think there will be a resurgence with Henne as the QB.  I think Pryor will turn the ball over.  I think MJD gets it going.  I like Jacksonville for the win here. 
Let's see if we can turn it around this week! 
Overall record heading into week 2: 2-3

Week 1 picks

Note if anyone stumbles across this-it's only for fun.  I don't have the time or expendable cash to actually do anything about these picks. Also, I think gambling can be extremely dangerous for those with addiction problems or self control issues (the entire American public fits in there somewhere.) No idea if I can even pick the games correctly.  But, I thought it would be fun to compare how I do versus the best in the supercontest.  So here are my published picks for the week:

Bucs (-3.5) over Jets
Seahawks (-3.5) over Panthers
Chiefs (-4) over Jaguars
Falcons (+3) over Saints
Redskins (-3.5) over Philadelphia

Should be fun!  College picks for today may follow...